World Bank: Climate Change Threatens To Displace 216 Million By 2050

In the absence of urgent action against the climate crisis, more than 200 million people might be forced out of their homes by 2050, the World Bank warned.

According to a comprehensive report the World Bank released on Monday, September 13, the international financial institution urged governments to curb global emissions and close the development gap in order to reduce the negative effects of slow-onset climate change, such as water scarcity and decreased crop productivity.

“All these issues are fundamentally connected, which is why our support to countries is positioned to deliver on climate and development objectives together while building a more sustainable, safe and resilient future,” according to the Vice President of Sustainable Development at the World Bank, Juergen Voegele.

In the worst-case scenario, the World Bank’s Groundswell Report estimates that by 2050, more than 216 million people could be on the move across six regions, creating "hotspots of internal climate migration" by 2030 that will continue to spread.

Sub-Saharan Africa is considered to be the most vulnerable region due to desertification, fragile coastlines, and the population's dependency on agriculture. If the worst scenario were to occur, 86 million people would cross borders within national boundaries.

Climate migrants could account for 19 million people in North Africa or 9% of the region's population.

The world could still see 44 million people displaced even through the most environmentally friendly strategy with low emissions and sustainable development.

Morocco has been seeing the effects firsthand. The kingdom has been vigilant in fighting attempts at migration from Africa to Europe, most notably, the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. 

There is a regular collaboration among all services to combat migration attempts, such as the General Directorate of National Security (DGSN), Royal Gendarmerie, and the Royal Navy.

In the past four years, Morocco's security services have rescued over 80,500 migrants at sea. Since 2017, Morocco has prevented more than 14,000 unauthorized migration attempts.

“The Groundswell report is a stark reminder of the human toll of climate change, particularly on the world’s poorest- those who are contributing the least to its causes. It also clearly lays out a path for countries to address some of the key factors that are causing climate-driven migration,” Juergen Voegele said.

The report “reaffirms the potency of climate to induce migration within countries,” according to Viviane Wei Chen Clement, a senior climate change specialist at the World Bank and one of the report’s co-authors.

In 2018, Groundswell published the first part of its report covering Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. In the second part of the report, which was published on Monday, environmental analysts offer climate migration projections and analysis for East Asia, the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe.

The report did not examine climate migration across borders, as well as short-term impacts from climate change, like extreme weather events.

The report explores possible future outcomes from a scenario-based approach, which can help decision-makers plan for the future. With this approach, hotspots of migration within and outside of the country can be identified based on water scarcity, agricultural decline, and rising sea levels, and new livelihood opportunities in both urban and rural areas can be identified.

“Globally, we know that three out of four people that move stay within countries,” said Kanta Kumari Rigaud, an environmental specialist at the World Bank and one of the authors of the report.

Actions recommended in the policy were reaching net-zero emissions by the middle of the century and investing in green growth to be consistent with the Paris Agreement.

The findings come ahead of the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference, COP26, scheduled to be held in November.

source: moroccoworldnews by Hanna Nepomuceno